<?php
/**
 * <https://y.st./>
 * Copyright © 2018 Alex Yst <mailto:copyright@y.st>
 * 
 * This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
 * it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
 * the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
 * (at your option) any later version.
 * 
 * This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
 * but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
 * MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
 * GNU General Public License for more details.
 * 
 * You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
 * along with this program. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org./licenses/>.
**/

$xhtml = array(
	'<{title}>' => 'I&apos;m making progress.',
	'takedown' => '2017-11-01',
	'<{body}>' => <<<END
<img src="/img/CC_BY-SA_4.0/y.st./weblog/2018/09/27.jpg" alt="A path through the trees" class="framed-centred-image" width="649" height="480"/>
<section id="drudgery">
	<h2>Drudgery</h2>
	<p>
		My discussion post for the day:
	</p>
	<blockquote>
		<p>
			I thought I had a good example of a random variable from an equation I tried and failed to solve a while back, but after thinking about it a bit more, it didn&apos;t really match what a random variable is.
			The set of values it could be measured as was infinitely large, and the probabilities for each possibility were both unmeasured and irrelevant.
		</p>
		<p>
			Instead, I&apos;ll discuss a more basic example: the rolling of two six-sided dice.
			Assuming the dice are fair, each side has an equal probability of landing face-up.
			The fact that there are two dice removes some of the even distribution though.
			For this example, we&apos;ll work with garden variety dice you&apos;d find in typical stores, in which each side is numbered with an integer from one to six.
		</p>
		<p>
			I won&apos;t get into the exact calculations as to why different values turn up at specific rates - I&apos;ll leave that as an exercise for the reader - but to make a point, I&apos;ll show the reasoning behind the odds of two specific values.
			When rolling a two, there&apos;s only one combination that will result in that value: 1 + 1.
			That gives us a 1/36 chance.
			However, there are six combinations that can add up so seven: 1 + 6, 2 + 5, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 5 + 2, and 6 + 1.
			That gives us a 1/6 chance of rolling a seven.
			Clearly, sevens are more likely than twos.
			Below is a table of the probabilistic frequencies for each roll:
		</p>
		<table>
			<tr>
				<th>
					Roll value
				</th>
				<th>
					2
				</th>
				<th>
					3
				</th>
				<th>
					4
				</th>
				<th>
					5
				</th>
				<th>
					6
				</th>
				<th>
					7
				</th>
				<th>
					8
				</th>
				<th>
					9
				</th>
				<th>
					10
				</th>
				<th>
					11
				</th>
				<th>
					12
				</th>
			</tr>
			<tr>
				<td>
					Probability
				</td>
				<td>
					1/36
				</td>
				<td>
					1/18
				</td>
				<td>
					1/12
				</td>
				<td>
					1/9
				</td>
				<td>
					5/36
				</td>
				<td>
					1/6
				</td>
				<td>
					5/36
				</td>
				<td>
					1/9
				</td>
				<td>
					1/12
				</td>
				<td>
					1/18
				</td>
				<td>
					1/36
				</td>
			</tr>
		</table>
		<p>
			Rolling a seven is the most likely outcome, so someone might claim to know they&apos;ll roll a seven.
			However, if we look at the actual probabilities, there&apos;s only a one out of six chance that they&apos;re right.
			That gives them a whopping <strong>*five out of six*</strong> chance that they get it wrong!
			If they, for example, placed a bet based on this alleged &quot;knowledge&quot;, they&apos;d most likely lose.
			The only way they can be certain not to lose is not to play.
			While some people gamble for fun, and gambling purely for fun is alright, this is why you shouldn&apos;t gamble in an attempt to actually make a profit.
			You&apos;re more likely to lose than win.
		</p>
	</blockquote>
</section>
<section id="bridge">
	<h2>Edge of my known world</h2>
	<p>
		There&apos;s a bridge near the $a[EUGLUG] meeting location.
		I see it every week.
		This week, I got kind of curious about what was beyond it, though I didn&apos;t have time to go look.
		After thinking about it a while, I realised that the bridge marked the edge of my known world.
		I don&apos;t often think about that sort of border, one specific to me, but it left me thinking about ow little of the world I actually know.
	</p>
</section>
<section id="include.d">
	<h2>Work on <code>include.d</code></h2>
	<p>
		Last week, I made a little progress on the <code>include.d</code> debug scripts.
		I actually found a bug in <code>include.d</code> too, thanks to additions to those scripts.
		Today, I got even more done on the scripts, and found two more bugs.
		I&apos;m not sure how many bugs <code>include.d</code> still has, but it&apos;s likely I won&apos;t find them all with this debug script update.
		The scope of the script update is too narrow for that.
		It only focuses on making sure <code>include.d</code> properly detects known error conditions and throws exceptions accordingly.
		In other words, in all three cases, <code>include.d</code> wasn&apos;t detecting abnormal data correctly and was reporting success in data-handling.
		Once this update is complete, <code>include.d</code> will be better at enforcing data validity.
	</p>
	<p>
		And once the debug script update is complete, I&apos;ll be ready to continue debug script upkeep as new functionality is added to <code>include.d</code>, so I&apos;ll be able to get back to adding the $a[XML] cleanliness checker I need for my website.
	</p>
</section>
<section id="lost">
	<h2>Getting lost</h2>
	<p>
		The past few weeks, I&apos;ve been trying to learn the town&apos;s layout a bit by taking slightly different routes home from the $a[EUGLUG] meetings.
		Each time, I avoid leaving the main street and heading to the bike path until I&apos;ve seen one more sign pointing out an entrance to said bike path.
		I went too far this time though.
		The route to the bike path past the entrance I used last week, while findable, was inefficient.
		I&apos;ve reached the limit of how long I should stay on that road.
	</p>
	<p>
		Once I found my way back to the bike path, which involved taking quite a long trip through down town because the street and bike path curved away from one another, I ended up turning onto the bike path the exact opposite of the direction I needed to go.
		I ended up biking back to near my starting point, and had to make the trip home pretty much time and a half.
		I&apos;m amazed I wasn&apos;t exhausted by the time I reached my complex.
		My butt hurt from sitting on my thin bike seat for so long, but my legs were fine.
		The trip certainly would&apos;ve tired me out only a few months ago.
		I&apos;m still too fat, but I&apos;m getting stronger, and that&apos;s a good sign.
		I&apos;m clearly building muscle mass, and muscle mass increases a body&apos;s fuel demands.
		Even just sitting still, a person with more muscle mass burns fat faster than a person with less muscle mass.
		I&apos;m making progress.
	</p>
</section>
END
);
